Trades 6/29 (Mon) - Manic Monday Wrap Up

6E

Used all my 6E gains for the day to make ONE statement.

Last trade was based on NO setup. Got my context and direction right, but without a setup, my entry was lousy. Sure as hell was exciting - not knowing what I was doing. I covered just before price turned back up coz that's the max loss I was willing to take for this clueless trade.

So, I need setups, not excitement.

Like I said, I missed my ES setup. Not chasing. Not selling. So, no trade. And feeling perfectly ok.

EP,
Removing my post about Ziad. I read it again. It does sound really mean. And perhaps even unfair to him.

Emini-Player & Anthony

I'm supposed to be doing 3 reviews for this weekend:
1) My own weekly trading performance review
2) Review of Infinity Futures & the AT platform
3) Review of TraderInterviews.com

Since I've sat on 2) for a while now (yes, feeling really guilty), I'll start with it first.

Not having done any form of reviews for services and other's sites, I'm not sure from where I should begin. So I'm just going to go right into comparing my previous broker's service with Infinity Futures' (actually, just that of my own broker - Anthony).

But wait, before I do that, there's just something I've been wanting to say for a long time, but just never found the opportunity to do so: THANK YOU, EMINI-PLAYER (EP)!!!

I'm usually tickled by those who claim how a certain product, person, service has changed either their entire life or a certain aspect of their life. But here I am now - all ready to say the very same thing to EP.

There's this unspoken rule - I noticed - in the trading blogosphere, that you do not tell others how to trade or ask specific details about their trading so you can help them "correct" their "mistakes". You refrain from sounding like you are imposing your trading style, philosophy, method etc, on others. What I noticed about EP is that he would leave comments and ask questions (both on my blog and on others') specific to trade execution and method and such, without coming off as pompous/all-knowing/imposing. I have personally benefitted from a few others like him, but today's post is about EP, and another person linked to EP.

Ever since I started trading, I've been a scalper. My goal has always been to get so consistent with achieving a certain number of points per day that I could start trading hundreds, and eventually thousands, of contracts on a daily basis SOME TIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE. D calls my trading "simulated trading with real money", coz what I'm doing now is really NOT for money (not the same as NOT caring about losing money - I absolutely HATE losing money still). My only focus now is CONSISTENCY. Whenever I screw up and hit my daily loss limit even one day out of an entire month, I re-set the time that I can go full throttle.

Anyway, I digressed. I meant to talk about HARD STOPS...

There are a few schools of thoughts regarding the use of hard-stops. I'm not going to start a discussion here on the pros and cons of having them, and am bringing it up only coz it's been what's troubling me the whole time, and the reason that I change my broker (margin requirement is the other reason). My previous broker's platform is extremely unfriendly to scalpers, and in particular, to me. I'm hopelessly inefficient in multi-tasking - when my eyes are on my charts and tape, my finger can do just one thing, and that's to click "buy market" or "sell market". I get in so quickly and get out so quickly that I'd have no time to put in a stop loss, much less move it, and no time to put in and change a profit target. Sure I can use a bracket order, but putting each one in is a hassle. I read the entire manual and couldn't find a way that could help me put in a stop and profit target in, like, a second. Some of my entries call for stops to be placed further to avoid the noise zones, and some call for very precised, tight stops, and I found myself unable to execute my trades exactly the way I wanted when I was on that platform. So, I developed the habit of not using a hard stop at all. And that has cost me DEARLY on days when I simply lost my mind.

All that changed after EP introduced me to Infinity Futures. Their AT platform was a dream come true for me (bear in mind that I'm almost an IT illiterate - I don't care about nor need complicated softwares - all I need is something that is IDIOT proof and ME ie. scalper friendly). I was finally able to put in and adjust my stops and profit targets. Anthony, my broker, is 1000 times more responsive than my previous broker. The best part is that he offers to manage my trades for me should I experience connection problems. My emails were answered almost immediately. The outcome is complete peace of mind - something I didn't have when I was with my previous broker, when scalping was always like skiing on a day that you knew there was going be an avalanche. Another thing was margin - I often trade during the globex hours, and my previous broker calls for maintenance margin that's twice that for the US hours, and I was constantly worried about other margin requirements that I wasn't aware of that would get me into trouble. With my new broker, I have no such worries coz margin requirement is straightforward. There's just one figure to remember, and that's how much I have in my account. And I cannot emphasize enough how not having to worry about anything else other than the position I'm in helps me to focus on my trading. A scalper that can't focus simply can't scalp.

Now it's true that there are many out there who are offering similiar service and rates that Anthony's offering me, but I'm happy with Anthony, and I think he deserves to be rewarded, and so that's why I'm sharing my experience. I DO get a discounted commission rate if those who are reading this decide to use his service, but that's not what motivated me to write this long-winded post. I'm sincerely grateful that the quality of Anthony's service and ease with which I can now enter and exit my trades on his company's platform has radically improved my trading psychology, and this letter of gratitude is a little overdue actually.

If you are looking for a better rate and service, do contact Anthony.
Click on this URL: http://www.infinityfutures.com/IATdemosignup.aspx?ref=agjb
Fill in your particulars, and the form will be automatically forwarded to Anthony.

Back to Emini-Player. He once asked me about my stops, which got me thinking about my risk-to-reward ratio. While I still don't believe in 2,3 and 4Rs profits in SCALPING, I'm starting to see the neccesity of closing the gap between the risk I'm taking and the reward I'm reaping. It used to be nearly impossible for me to have a positive day after a series of losing trades, but after I started adjusting my stop loss and profit targets according to my setups and choosing on occasions only those setups that requires smaller stop losses, it has been a lot easier for me to turn a losing day around. I have more stop outs now of course, which is actually really good for someone who isn't used to taking losses. Trading is after all a probability game - learning how to lose is almost as important as, if not more important than, learning how to win. For that, I have EP to thank. He has been such a strong advocate of not losing big & winning small it's hard to not notice him, especially when he leaves comments everywhere :-)

I hope you find a great prop firm to work with soon, EP. It's clear you have both passion and the willingness to work hard and steadily towards success, and I wish others will see them too. By the way, that's a lot you're paying for education! In the part of the world that I live, parents usually foot the bill. So hats off to you for seeing yourself through school.

Trade 6/26 (Fri) - Wrap Up & D's Foot

D had a surgical procedure done on his foot this morning, and is not going to be able to walk for a week. For some strange reason, I find his foot very tempting.......TO STEP ON!!

D's annoying. He had refused to cancel his meetings, and since he couldn't hold them in his office, he decided to hold conference calls at home! I served lunch, helped him set up his make-shift office, and while he was on call, I took the chance to enter a 6E trade. Couldn't focus, ended up scratching, and that precipitated a migraine attack that kept me away from my screen for the rest of the Europe hours.

After dinner, whenever I mentioned I was going to see if I can get in on the ES, D would sing me this dreadful rendition of the theme song for a famous HK variety program, and I would burst out laughing each time... totally unable to FOCUS. Missed my 6-tick (which I would have gotten on the 3rd candle after market opened) winner!

So when D wanted to enter short at 913.5, I told him it was going up. D took my word for it - even though he recognized the 2nd entry plus partial rise setup. ES went about 3 points down. Since D was always just aiming for 3 ticks, he was pissed.

But I was PLEASED!!!

To add insult to injury, I remarked that if he had had so much conviction, he wouldn't have hesitated just coz I said it was going up.

I'm HAPPY that I'm ME AGAIN!! LOL!!!!

Anyway, D's up about 300 for the week (that's a lot for someone who aims for one to two 3-tick winners a day), and I'm up 800, so we are not going to kill each other over a few ticks.

Well, actually, I can kill D, but D can't kill me YET. He needs me to bathe him, and wheel him to our smoking corner for his nicotine fix for an entire week.

Hur hur hur.....

Trades 6/25 (Thurs) - Wrap Up

Stayed out as planned. I'm not upset that I could have easily gotten another 150 had I gone in.

Really, I'm not upset.

&$#%*$#**!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SIMULATED TRADING

As usual, I'm not aiming for multiple points (tough like hell to achieve - on something that's traded more by computers than by human beings). 12 ticks is about max that I'd target for. During a week that I had projected to lean towards bearishness, my max target would not be more than 8 ticks. So 6 is about right.

Definitely still working towards consistency and finally multiple CONTRACTS.

Pre-Market SELF-Analysis: To Trade or Not To Trade...

Am checking my mental state to see if I should be taking any ES trades less than 3 hours from now.....

Given that I have - in a single 6E trade - exceeded my daily profit target for a FED week, every cell in my body is feeling an EXTREME reluctance in giving back even ONE dollar of what I've earned today.

A very probable scenario if I were to enter an ES trade : I would lift my stop.

In fact, I am absolutely sure that I would most certainly cancel my stop should price start to go against me.

So, perhaps I should really sit on my hands and just watch the market like I've been doing for the past 3 days....

BUT, if I continue to do that, I will get rusty with executing ES trades.

The 6E has a vastly different rhythm...that's what I feel...being on the 6E for too long without touching the ES makes me a clumsy ES trader, which is unthinkable coz ES is going to be my bread & butter in the long run (you can't put size on the 6E).

Solution: SIM trade!!!

Now I can start thinking about dinner.

6E Trade 6/25 (Thurs)

Momentum: UP (Channel)

Trade: 1 - winner

That's all the 6E I'll have for the day. It should start to get crazy in about 2 - 3 hours...

Trades 6/24 (Wed) - Wrap Up

Still staying away from ES. Will probably be back trading it tomorrow. About time to stay away from 6E, which is really starting to drain me.

Done and dusted for the day. Time to clear my emails!

6E Trades 6/24 (Wed) - Crazy 6E

Trade #1 & 2

Trade # 3 & 4

Momentum: Chop, CHOP, CHOP!!!

Blue Arrow: Loser
Green Arrow: Winner

The 6E's all over the place since last Friday. Tape's crazy, candles are crazy, and it's absolutely impossible to enter a stop order without feeling like you're going to be trapped. Limit order (something that I'm not accustomed to using) seems to be the way to go for now.

Support and resistance are still reliable (in fact, about the only things that are reliable on the chart!) and I'm starting to buy at places I usually wouldn't (ie. when candle says "no go", but price is at support). I could have chosen to stay out, of course. Which I think is what I'm going to be doing for the rest of the day, if I could.

Trades 6/23 (Tues) - Wrap Up

Calling it a day. No ES trades - too tired to wait for a reversal.

Dinner was good, and D gave a card that made me tear. Best birthday in years. I'm happy!

6E Trades 6/23 (Tues) - Gremlins & Happy Day

Momentum: Chop/Range (Asian Session) then Up (European Session)

Blue Arrow: Loser
Pink Arrow: Scratch at -1 tick
Green Arrow: Winner

Crazy day. Lifted my stops (which were tightened once my orders were filled) several times to accommodate chops after price broke above base.

Seabloke came with her little ones when I was buying a breakout. Scratched the trade to answer the door. Lost 1 tick, but was totally worth it.

Twins brought me a mini birthday cake, made the mother light a candle, and sang me a birthday song!

And they drew me more cards!

After a 15 minute celebration, Seabloke left with little ones so I could continue to trade.

I'm not the type that celebrates birthdays coz having a crowd sing me a birthday song - basically just being the centre of attention - makes me feel ultra awkward.

But the little party today is just PRECIOUS!

I don't know what I've done to deserve love like this. Seabloke even bought me lunch knowing that I skip it most of the time!

I don't know what to say. I just wanna cry!!!

Wrapped up my 6E trading session. Getting dressed to have dinner with D at my favorite haunt.

Trades 6/22 (Mon) - Wrap Up

No ES trades (not selling, not selling, not selling!!), and not intending to stay up for one.

At long last, a positive Monday.

6E Trades 6/22 (Mon) - Price Action Through Kids' Eyes

Asian Session (Trades #1-5)European Session (Trade #6)

Momentum: Down
Scalped in wave 4 channels & wedges

Blue arrow: Loser
Pink arrow: Scratch at breakeven
Green arrow: Winner

Seabloke dropped off her 5-year-old twins about 2 hours before the European session began.

We played a little, and when twins decided to do some coloring, I thought I could go back to trading.

But little ones got very curious about my work, and came to sit with me. I explained my charts to them: when candles are red and coming down, I can't buy; when price's come down a lot and is very cheap, I'd want to buy; when price is going up to near certain lines (resistance), I can't buy anymore coz if I did, I'd have no one to sell to unless I sell dirt cheap (at which point twins commented they don't like CHEAP...Sea, YOU'RE IN TROUBLE!! LOL!!)

As I went about doing some chores, twins reported to me what price was doing. Amazing.

Then at various points that I had considered buying, little ones said no go, and price went back down immediately, forming a higher swing low. At the point that I entered my only European-session trade (trade #6), twins had no objection, and I took my 1.1 points.

Creepy.

They drew me a birthday card. Melts my heart.

Market-Chasing Week

While last week gave me some hints that my performance is somewhat correlated with the number of hours I spend in front of my screen, this week is proof that staring at charts for more than 16 hours a day is a serious impediment to my trading .

Week in Review:

Monday
A downtrending day where I kept buying in 2 fairly huge bear wedges. Had I taken some time off my screen, I would have had the opportunity to think about my thinking process while trading. Decisions I made would have been much better, especially those related to profit-taking.
Loss: USD 425

Tuesday
Ranging day with upward momentum where I had waited for my setup even though I was at my desk the entire day. I guess non-down days just make me a more patient person.
Profit: USD 225

Wednesday
Ranging day with upward momentum during the Asia & Europe hours. The most notable trade was the one that I chased during the US session, when the momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish, and after I had missed my favorite setup (D's fault! He's a major distraction!)
Profit: USD 262

Thursday
Asia and Europe Session:
PERFECT ranging day - channel was perfectly horizontal. It was supposed to be the best day of the week. I felt so in sync with the market I got cocky and thought I could aim for the sky. On a day that I could apply my scalping skills beautifully, I started it swing trading a position for a 8-point profit instead of taking my usual 1 to 2 point profit in the 6E. Realized my folly after being stopped out for nearly the amount that would have required me to close shop for the day, I went back to scalping. I was in 2 point profit immediately before taking the 2.7 point loss in the first trade. The remaining 4 6E trades were perfect. I have to say they felt EASY. Shows how trading only on my type of day can significantly improve my bottom line. In fact, going forward, I'm going to put size back on on days like this.

US Session:
Uptrending market. Missed the opening bell and my MOST MOST favorite setup. D's fault again!! He got home late, and instead of focusing on the market, I started telling him about my day, and listening to him tell me about his. I missed my signals by mere seconds. Once I miss a signal, I don't chase. So I thought. I ended up not chasing that particular setup, and merely chase any upmove instead. BAD decision. Because I was in trades that I wasn't comfortable with, my execution was CLUMSY and for that I lost POINTS.
Profit: USD 87

Friday
Asia & Europe Session
Ranging day with DOWNWARD momentum. Sat in front of my screen since 7am local time and started CHASING market in wave 4. Terribly stressful session where I saw profits disappeared and became losses. Recovered some at the end of the session.

US Session
DOWN, DOWN , DOWN session. I traded my setup, but simply refused to take profit that was realistic for a down day (I was buying, as usual). Then I refused to give the trade the room it needed to move (I hadn't used the appropriate stop for my signal - it was a day with huge candles and if I choose to trade, I'll simply have to use a wider stop).
Loss: USD 400

6E & ES Trades 6/19 (Fri) - Typical Friday

6E

ES

Losing day to end the week. Textbook.

At 1:30am local time (1:30pm NY), D reported excitedly - as I was coming out from e shower - that ES was finally getting back up. I looked at my chart and told him that's still his market. It's a wave 4, bear broadening wedge, doesn't matter what you call it, it's what sellers live for.

If there's anything I can feel happy about the week/month, it's that POMPOUS D, MY disciple, has had a month of NIL losing day! Yes, 100% winning days with just 1 losing trade. I wish he'd let profits run for more than 3 ticks though. Even with a bear outside bar signal on a strong down day, he would not hold his position. But, he's doing better than me. So I'll shut up just for this week.

AAR

Had I waited til after 2pm to enter the 1st trade of the day (where I'd still have my USD 400 chips to play!):

Bad Week, Bad Trading, Good People

I've always considered myself a very lucky person. Dad, Seabloke and Pilot love me; my cats are extremely attached to me; D is still with me; my friends don't hate me (I think).

Even my cleaning ladies are good to me. The first one, Mdm O, was with me for 11 years and retired last year. She would bring me breakfast everytime she came, and bought all my cleaning supplies when they ran out (I know nothing about cleaning products). When I brought her to my new home a few weeks ago, she cried when I walked with her around my neighborhood coz she had missed D and me so much....my bad for making the very sweet lady cry....

The second one, Maria, is from the Phillipines. She's been with me for more than a year. I think she has either a master or PHD in chemistry. Maria knows I'm so quiet I'd be mistaken for a mute, and will chat with me only when I look like I welcome a conversation. Today, I looked like I would eat people alive, and so she took the ironing to the kitchen to avoid having to open the blinds (I don't like sunlight). I didn't realize that she was in the hot kitchen until I got out of my losing trade. I felt so terrible I took her back to the living room, switched on the air-con for her, and drew open the blinds so she could iron in there. Then for the first time, I told her I was in a really lousy mood, and the market's driving me crazy. I told her how agitated I've been for the past 7 days, and how my own brain just wouldn't stop pushing me to the edge. She asked if I've considered taking up yoga. And I told her that THAT would really be an ultimate test of my patience. I told her how I have to take a stress relief pill everyday for the past 3 years just to get 4 hours of sleep and to keep me calm in the day. And even with my pill, I'm mostly NOT so cool. Maria was surprised. She said she couldn't tell from my demeanor. I thanked her for listening, and told her that I'd settle for nicotine instead of yoga for stress relief. Ha ha.

I'm not sure if I'm done for the day. I'm down by 225. I would have taken a worse hit had I not realized what I was doing. I was chasing the market the entire day, buying a wave 4 again. I knew I was buying in a wave 4 channel and I had wanted to be nimble...but once in trade, I would get totally irrational and unrealistic about the market.

This is just a really, really bad week. I've been impatient, agitated, easily distracted, and extremely rash with my trading. Knowing that I would do so much better if only I'd get a hold of myself just doesn't seem to help at all.

I really need to calm down before I can deal with the market again today. I've simply got to stop dwelling on the trades that I've missed, and believe that the market's always there. I scalp, so I'd always have many good setups a day, and there's really no need to keep beating myself up for missing a couple of them.

A few have asked if I've turned off comments. I did. LP, I'm turning comments page back on. Lonely's site is for cool conversations and cool gang (since when did Lonely become Godfather? LOL!). ;-)

6E & ES Trades 6/18 (Thurs) - Crazy Day

Cutting a long story short:

D got home at 930am N.Y. time SHARP. We exchanged stories about our day, and coz of that I missed my favorite setup. I don't know why I did it, but I chased (one of those things I don't normally do), right at the point where ES hit major resistance. Covered at 6 ticks loss. And then I did the unthinkable: clicking more than once on "sell". Realized that immediately and bailed at breakeven. Then I entered long right when ES was moving back up to the same resistance level!! Then I double-click on "sell" AGAIN!!! This time I wasn't so lucky. I simply couldn't hold a short at a place where I won't SELL (it's where both bulls and bears can get trapped). So I covered at 6 ticks loss.

Total disaster.

Recovered 200 of the 300 I lost in the next 2 trades.

Total for the day: + USD 87

What a day.

6E Trades 6/18 (Thurs) - On To ES

All 5 trades on chart. Have had enough of 6E for the day. My mind has kind of printed an image of the 6E DOM...keep seeing 14, 23....strange but when you see them, you can almost just hit buy. Kidding. But really, 14 and 23.

Buy 4-D!!!

It's lunch time (or dinner...whatever....)! D's at a function tonight...we had fun last night after I wrapped up, and after I told him I'd have to put work before him. Ha!

He was in a short position (a 2nd entry setup), and was eager to get out. I put my hand on his shoulder, and kept whispering to him to "hang on". Then at absolutely the lowest that ES could go, I told him to get out. He had a stop at 2 points away and had wanted to get out when it went 5 ticks against him. He was happy he got a profit instead. And then he got his massage too ,and was doubly happy!

I FEEL GOOD!!

Such a hopeless woman.

6E Trades 6/18 (Thurs) - STILL A Scalper

Am just too adventurous for my own good...

Ok, rephrase: GREED DOESN'T PAY!

Was targeting 1.4026 exit, and wasn't willing to place a stop that's wider than my daily loss limit. And, totally ignoring the fact that it's just plain stupid to put a stop just 5 ticks below support (and I thought 5 ticks was generous!!).

Penalty for being stingy & GREEDY (I had at least 2 chances to take USD 200 within 10 mins after entry, and I refused to take it) : USD 340

I most absolutely was NOT happy to be stopped out just 7 ticks before price turned around. Activated my scalping mode and recovered all but USD 75 of my money in 2 scalps.

See, that's the reason why I'll always be an extremely short-term trader. Anything longer than 15 minutes in the market is just WAY TOO LONG for me!!!

Had I insisted on holding for my 8 point profit at all cost, I would have had to risk USD 420, and by now price is not even half way to my 8 point profit - in fact, I would have just earned barely USD 200 (which I would have pocketed in my 10 min scalp...IF i had taken the profit of course).

So, why wouldn't I choose scalping where I would have earned USD 200 +180 +85 = USD 465 today??

No more holding. For the umpteenth time - UH- UH to holding !!!!

Ok, to be fair, had I taken the 200, I'd probably have taken a nap and come back hours later...

I'm not complaining. Today is one of the best trading days I've had. It shows me that I can most definitely manage up to 3 scalps at one go. No more smoke break after each trade. It's not like trading is so stressful.

Is that me brain-washing myself??

After 7 hours of being in the market without a break, I deserve a nicotine fix now.

I'm too thrilled that my day has just begun (according to my PnL)!!

6E Trades 6/17 (Wed) Wrap Up & Jules The Punisher

Missed ES SetupIt's a bad day. It's bad coz I've finally come to realize that trading is NOT on the top of my priority list. D remains the most important thing in my life, frustratingly so.

I took my last trade without a proper signal and ended up scratching at a 2-tick gain, all because D came home with a headache AGAIN (I wish he would quit his job). His right-hand man drove him right up the wall today.

Anyway, I promised him a massage and he was waiting. I was waiting for my signal for my desired trade but i couldn't stand letting him wait. So I went in knowing that I was chasing price. It was Deja vu that saved me. Been through this too many times, and definitely not making the same mistake again.

Gave up my favorite ES setup too (3rd screenshot above). I was just too frustrated to trade.

Told D about my "problem" - that he's become a MAJOR distraction and obstacle to my trading. Market's not there to wait on me. I'm the one that's doing the waiting, and I deserve the peace-of-mind to trade my setups when they appear. Trading's my bloody job!

I suggested a solution. I asked D if I can ignore him, and put work before him. He agreed.

I'm happy for now.

At least I asked. I'm better than him. And I feel GOOD!!!

Sweet revenge. Took me 15 years!!!

6E Trades 6/17 (Wed)

Blue arrow shows my losing trade; green shows winning

Initial plan was to trade off the Hourly:

Since it's probably going to take hours before I can make a move, I took trades off the 5 min (which is really NOT my favorite timeframe for FX trading) in the meantime.

Nothing much to say for the losing trade except that not very many people wanted to buy at the price I went in at so it was just too bad for me. In time, after many small (ouch, ouch, ouch!!!) losses, I'm sure I'll learn to NOT buy in the middle of a channel just as price's moving down!

Not touching the 5min anymore for the day. Will either take a trade on the hourly or wait for a setup in the ES.

ES Trades 6/16 (Tues) - Wrap Up

2nd trade is based on very similar setup....the tape is a little more chaotic during the active hours of course. Price is still struggling to break above opening range...should it break below instead, I'd be very tempted to sell. And then I'd most probably kick myself for not sticking to my plan of trading just that 1 or 2 setups - at least until I'm back on my footing.

So I'm calling it a day. There's always tomorrow. I don't even need the market to go up to buy, so there's really no hurry to RECOVER MY LOSSES FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS. $%*$%&***!!

The most important task for me now is to regain my composure.

When I'm cool, I can trade.

ES Trade 6/16 (Tues)

One of the 2 setups that I trade (when I'm disciplined).

I'm not sure we're going up just yet. I keep seeing a 3rd leg down, and support at 900 - 910.

Original plan was to avoid globex-hour trades, but I just really needed something to cheer me up.

ES 6/15 - After Action Review

On a day that's trending down, I scalp "wave 4"s, which can be either up or down sloping channels. I'll buy towards a MSH (usually the 2nd - can be a lower or higher swing high - the 3rd, if it's a lower swing high than the 2nd, would be a nice H&S for bears).

The mistakes I made yesterday are found in the following list (by no means an exhaustive one) :

1) Scalping during the globex session - price forms miniature legs during the quieter hours, and because of that, I tend to be unwilling to enter at 1 tick above signal, reason being that I don't want to be caught in buying the 2nd MSH (where bears sell, and I become the trapped bull). I tend to buy 1 tick above an outside bar (instead of the inside), which can be 3 or 4 ticks above my signal candle. In scalping, every tick counts. I enter at a lousy price, and that's fine as long as I'm realistic about my exit. Sometimes I get carried away and overstay.

2) Assuming that market's reversing after a significant move down - which causes me to overstay when I buy the 2nd MSH of a wave 4. I get into trouble when I target my exit at a point that's higher than the previous MSH (I don't do that if I assume that what I'm seeing is NOT a truncated wave 5 - but the risk-taker in me tend to see truncated wave 5s....and I had no basis to assume a truncated wave 5 yesterday since it really wasn't a day that bears were desperate to cover).

3) Stop loss was too LOOSE. Even a 6 tick stop is a loose one on a day that I fade a strong trend, let alone a 9 to 10 tick stop.

All in all, I should have stayed away on a down trending day. I could still scalp what I mentioned above, but if I choose to do that, I would do well to heed my inner voice that's always telling me to get out before the bears are done taking profit.

Interestingly, D had sold yesterday (well, he always sells anyway), but always got out too soon, taking barely 3 ticks each time.

When I asked about his setup, he said he would sell when price had touched the upper channel. I told him that's technically not a setup. A setup is one that gives him an edge. If he's selling, his best shots are those where price has broken out of a downward sloping channel - that's because on a day with strong downward momentum, the first 2 or even 3 breakouts are mostly fake breakouts, and bears would take over once bulls stop buying. That means that his best shorts are the ones where price has overshot a trendline (it's where lots of scalpers that buy a breakout find themselves in a market without a follow-through, which will send them covering immediately).

D's best entry yesterday was a few candles after I exited my long. It was the textbook "2nd-Entry" short that I've shown him before (and told him to just trade that setup until he can hold his trades for at least 6 to 8 ticks). The signal candle was beautifully small, so selling 1 tick below would still give him a nice scalp profit of at least 6 ticks.

D used to wonder why I don't sell when I recognize sell signals better than buy signals. I think he finally figured out that I'm playing defence here. Since I know the onset of a PLUNGE, I'm better off buying. I'm not good at reading WHEN selling stops - and since I have a tendency to get carried away, I get caught in selling at a point where market's stop plunging. I find buying better suited to my personality, coz the market's always making an effort to go up. My only problem with buying is that of overstaying, but I rarely get caught in a situation where I get in and the market immediately turns against me.

On the chart above, I have shown only my last 2 entries. The first 2 entries were based on similar premise, except that they were globex-hour trades. After those 2 trades, I had stopped buying once the time was up for a wave 5 down (I was buying a failed wave 5, yes, but wave 5 didn't fail, so I gladly took my loss). In hindsight, I should have just totally stayed away ie. give up all down trending days. But I have a more enterprising spirit than that ie. it will take me a LONG time to learn to be conservative. Only time will tell if insisting on being who I am will pay off.

ES Trades 6/15 (Mon) - Nothing New

Definitely should have waited til at least after 2pm to buy. Impatience got the better of me AGAIN.

Nothing to cry over. Just need to stop being myself.

I'm still NOT going to sell. Not selling is a huge part of my strategy, and I'm not going to change it just because I'm pigheaded enough to keeping buying on a fierce down day.

No chart - there isn't any notes on it (yes, I had forced all my trades).

To all who have asked about my comment section, it's been inactivated. Will turn it back on when I feel less glum. Just don't want to be rude (I don't do anything other than sleep and stare at my charts now, and overlook everything else. Yes I still read emails, just haven't gotten down to responding).

ES 6/12 (Fri) - Notes

Good setups that were passed (daily loss limit hit before start of US session).

Lesson:
Save chips for good setups, especially at end of week, especially after consecutive winning days

No Time For Bad Trades

It's apparent that my best days this week were those where I hadn't the time to sit in front of my screen (staring at my charts) for 12 - 16 hours a day.

When pressed for time, I trade the best setup coz I have no time to nurse bad trades. I take a look at my charts for a few minutes and if within that time I don't see my favorites, I simply walk away. It was "Carrie Week". My friend was my priority.

Actually, I was prepared to take a trading break for the week to spend time with Carrie. However, it turned out that I had a few hours to kill each day while Carrie went out to meet her other friends here. I had used those spare time to go over my charts, and if I didn't see anything I could trade, I simply get dressed earlier and played with Al (didn't want to get stuck in bad trades that I had to nurse - coudn't let my friend wait for me). We usually got home way after the US market had opened, and I would scan the ES 5 min for my favorite setups. I was able to quickly make out what the trend was and where it was likely going. My eyes and mind were simply way, way sharper after being away from the screen for the entire day.

A more detailed review of the week:

Monday - Carrie had arrived in the morning and we were out the whole day. When I sat down in front of my charts for the first time that day, it was slightly before US lunch session. I took 2 trades while Carrie was in the shower. Stopped out on both. After Carrie and D turned in - which was 2 hours later - I recouped all my losses. Breakeven day : + USD 25

Tuesday - Carrie was out in the afternoon, and I took a few 6E trades. Then in the evening, when she was having a chat with D, I took a quick ES trade. Good day. Best day. + USD 487

Wednesday - Carrie went to an island nearby with a friend. I took a few 6E trades, then spent a lot of time sleeping (and didn't feel guilty, coz, hey, I wasn't supposed to be trading anyway). Took just 1 ES trade in the evening coz I had to be up early the following morning. Good day (albeit filled with blunders) +USD 375

Thursday - Spent the whole day with Carrie and saw her off at the airport. Got home shortly before the US session started. D was having a headache and I didn't want to keep him up. So my plan was to go for just 1 good trade and then call it a day. I had to be selective about my only trade for the day. Great day. 1 trade + USD 300

Friday - The first day of the week that I had the ENTIRE DAY to trade. D-day: -USD 575

Nuff said.

Lord Tedders once told me that his best days were those where he spent only a couple of hours in front of his screen. I always remember what he said, but it hasn't stopped me from doing stupid things now and then.

Once in a while, I must sabotage myself.

Maybe I don't love me so much after all.

Monologue

I have used up my half-yearly quota for interaction with human beings. Today, I was so near to sending my cleaning lady away. Besides Seabloke, D & Carrie, no one got to speak to me since yesterday. I hadn't been picking up calls, and haven't any intention to return them.

I slept terribly last night. I dreamt of an ex colleague from the bank - she was foaming from her mouth and dying in my arm. She looked terribly helpless, and lonely, and there was nothing I could do to help her. I wished I could at least get her out of her ugly evening gown - it's pink! - which was suffocating her, but I knew it was an impossible task coz that gown was actually her own skin.

When Carrie was here, we talked about where I wanted to live. I said I want to be wherever that makes me want to spend time out of my cave. And that place isn't here.

I spent a lot of time in my own head, coz idle conversations agitate me. The truth is, whenever I'm stuck with someone who just won't shut up, I wish that the ground beneath me would just give way and suck me right down to earth's core. Over the years my condition has worsen to the point that I can't spend more than 30 minutes with anyone.

But when Carrie was here, I wished she didn't have to leave. And I think it's coz she's about the only other person that I know who needs no human company. She loves being around interesting things and people, but she doesn't NEED people. I absolutely cannot develop any affection for those who need people like they need air. If the person's a male, I would outright despise him.

My facebook account has gone underground; I've never learned how to use twitter, or MSN or any other chatting services. When Seabloke text me earlier today to inform me that I couldn't be found on facebook, I had told her that that was my intention.

I don't know what's gotten over me, but I just want to be alone. Loneliness suits me and makes me feel at home.

6E Trades 6/12 (Fri) - Painful Wrap Up

This is me at my most stubborn. Broke all the rules that I could possibly break:

1) Ignored the very pathetic volume, and went in 4 times

2) Blatantly ignored the inner voice that was telling me that I wasn't trading according to my plan (which is to enter only when price has come down to the area highlighted on my chart)

3) Moved my stop for the 2nd trade, and totally removing it for the 3rd and 4th trade (didn't want my stops to be taken out by spikes on a low volume day)

4) Refusing to take a step back to re-evaluate and re-group after 2 consecutive stop-outs

5) Ignored rule number regarding trading the 6E: that I was NOT to expect to have a trade everyday (since I'm only taking LONG position) - especially not on a Friday!!

6) Blowing my daily loss limit (this I have no control over - I simply couldn't get out fast enough for the last losing trade - had I had a choice, I would have bailed at 100 plus loss!)

I am officially calling it a day. Even if I have a setup in the ES, I am going to have to pass.

My only consolation is that I'm still up for the week, and my gains for these 2 weeks is still within the target that D has set for me (mine is 4 times that figure!!! But now's a good time to go with his, else I'll really feel like killing myself).

From now on, I will NOT enter a trade that does not allow me to put in a HARD STOP. That means no trading unless there's VOLUME!

I'll be a better trader next week.

Sea,
I'm not getting out of my cave until July. So, bring me my birthday cake. :-p

6E Trades 6/12 (Fri) - Patience Tested

I have reason to believe that being the mule that I am, I'll most probably buy again within that boxed area that looks very much like a partial rise (read: reliably bearish). Going out for a breather before I do the unthinkable & impossible...

Oh, yes, I was the stupid bull that got trapped by going in at 1 tick above what I thought was a signal (despite seeing a lower H3).

You're not going back up just yet, are you, 6E??!

Trading Is NOT About Winning...

...neither is it about losing per se.

Trading's just business - at the end of the day, all that matters is the bottom line.

Yes, you definitely need to LOVE this business - almost as much as you love your kids, your shoe-chewing puppy, your annoying girlfriend, etc,etc. Anyone who's considering- even albeit very remotely - TRADING (as opposed to INVESTING, and in reference to very short-term trading only) seriously, or is already a serious trader, will know what I'm talking about.

A post on the topic in question (by Ivanhoff , who writes for the Trading Goddess) that I like very much.

While there are heaps of articles and books out there that touch on the topic of "cutting losses" that I've always just outright ignored, this particular article strikes a chord.

Something to do with timing, I reckon.

Yes, I believe in using a stop loss now.

I've traded without it before, and while at first it was good to not have it (means you won't ever be stopped out - you get out on your own terms and in a losing trade, that's always based on how much PAIN you can take; and since I can take A LOT, the "big ticket" losses I've had in the past have been catastrophically disastrous for me - not so much in the monetary sense, but they definitely nearly broke my spirit), a series of good, hard lessons taught me that if I want to do this (trade for a living) for the long haul, I'd have to accept - perhaps even learn to embrace - small losses.

ES Trade 6/11 (Thurs) - Wrap Up

Been out the entire day, spending some quality time with Carrie. Carrie's not well, and no words can describe my feelings about what happened to her. All I want now is to get to where I want to be as quickly as I can, so that I can see her on a regular basis. During her short stay here, she had told me a number of times that there are more important things in life than work - and that she had realized that only after the episode that she had gone through. My response was that I had heard that too many times, and that I had made up my mind, chosen my path, and am all prepared to live with whatever that life decides to throw at me as a result of my choice.

Saw Carrie off and got home 1 hour before the US market opened. Had a quick bite before taking a look at what the ES has been doing in the past 18 hours. D has been having a nagging headache, so I was targeting for a one shot one kill sniper style trade that will allow me to wrap up before midnight. If I didn't see one, I was prepared to not trade at all today.

Started with a clean chart (deleted all S/R and trendlines), and ended up with the following, 5 mins before market opened:

After market opened :

SPY & SPX charts, and P&L for the day:

D has been the sweetest - rescheduled his meetings so he could see Carrie off too. Am calling it a day so he can have an early night.

Emini-Player:
I enter on market mostly, sometimes on stop (like today). Hardly (almost never) on limit.

Thanks again to all for your comments. I'll really get down to responding to each one of you tmrw.

6E & ES Trades 6/10 (Wed) - Wrap Up

Total: USD 375

Not a fun day in general. First the morning scare, then the extremely distressing counter-trend longs during the US session.

Not staying up for market reversal (if any!). Visiting Aunt early in the morning before she leaves for JKT.

Thanks to friends & family for having left comments - my apologies to all for not having responded. I will do that tmrw.

Emini-Player: 3-tick is enough to tell me if my setup has been invalidated. I skip anything that takes more than 3-tick, unless the upside is worth my throwing in more chips :-)

6E Trades 6/10 (Wed) - Jumbling Blundering Mishmash Of Longs

Blunder: Traded the ES when I meant to trade the 6E.

Blunder: Hit "buy market" 4 times on the 1st 6E trade. My brain wasn't registering anything my fingers were doing, I gather. When I saw +4 on the DOM, I freaked. I utterly hate the number "4". So I got 1 contract out of the way almost immediately, at 1-tick loss. Kept 3 contracts and removed my hard stop. Price was NOT going up, of course, and the only thing I could do was to focus on keeping calm. Went over the reason that I had entered the trade, and was convinced that the reason was valid. Any signs that market was no longer doing what I thought it would do would have sent me bailing at any cost. 6E is a monster, and loves to plunge. (Still fresh in my mind is the day it took USD 2500 from me in a single trade on a SINGLE contract, coz it just wouldn't stop going down - never seen anything like this ever before - and I froze!)

I eventually got out where I wanted to get out - at trendline resistance. The gain of USD165 felt PRECIOUS....until a setup appeared a few candles later. I decided that since I've had the ultimate fright of the year, nothing else was going to give me a heart attack today. I went long on 2 contracts. Had a hard time getting out. Slippage was terrible. I had to time my exit at market and there was no good time to cover except when market was soaring 5 to 6 ticks in seconds. I had to give up my targeted 1.4090 exit as a result. I wanna cry.

Am taking a break - I need food and sleep, and NICOTINE!!!

Sea,
You're probably the only one that knows my frustration. I do the most unthinkable, impossible things on a REGULAR BASIS (you've lost count, I know) - it's like my brain just decides to take breaks as and when it fancies without giving me any heads-up!! I'm hazardous to all living and non-living things around me! My cave is not adequate in containing me; I need a bunker.

6E & ES Trades 6/9 (Tues) - Wrap Up

Total: USD 437

One shot, one kill. Don't even want to hold for the next candle that's aiming for downtrendline. Got to be up tmrw at 6am. Carrie's taking a ferry to a nice little island nearby.

6E Trades 6/9 (Tues) - Part 2

Woke up from a 2-hour nap and was glad to see decent volume in the 6E.

Carrie's not called, so I took a scalp. Done with 6E for today. Will go back to ES for the US session - if we get home before midnight. Else, will call it a day.

Seabloke just called to break bad news. My aunt - to whom I owe everything I have today - is moving back to Indonesia for good. She's the only authority figure in my life after Granny and Dad died, and I can't help but really feel like I haven't any reason to continue to stay here.

Now I'm SAD!!!

6E Trades 6/9 (Tues) & ES Trades 6/8 (Mon) & CARRIE!!!

ES Trade 6/8 (Mon): USD 25

Euro Futures (6E) Trades 6/9 (Tues):

Carrie arrived at 1130am at Changi Airport yesterday. I was there at 930am with Al Brooks (couldn't leave home without him), walked around Terminal 3, took some pictures, smoked a few cigarettes, had a wholesome (whatever for I really have no idea) breakfast - mango muffin and green tea - while reading Brooks, and it was one of my happiest days in months. I hadn't seen Carrie for 3 years, and the thought of having her for a few days had kept me happy over the weekends.

Carrie brought 6 bottles of Planters Dry Roasted Peanuts! She's simply the loveliest. I repaid her by making her walk with me for a good half hour coz I couldn't find my car (Sea, stop laughing already!!). Finally, it was Carrie who figured out that there were 2 exits out to the carpark and I was at the wrong end. What would I do without D, Seabloke, and my friends??

Carrie is the one person who knows my deepest, darkest secrets. Seabloke knows 90% - the rest she would have to catch up (we were separated for the bulk of our teenage years). But Sea can always purchase the info - I take cookies & ice-cream!! LOL!!!

Carrie and I spent the most part of yesterday just talking and doing other forms of lung exercise...We went to my favorite hangouts, then to Sea's, then we picked D up from his office and went to the Esplanade to get our favorite cookies from The Cookie Museum, and had dinner there. After that, we walked around doing what we always do whenever the 4 of us are together - take turns to crack sick jokes.

By the time we got home, it was passed midnight. Carrie turned in, D checked how his toxic assets were doing, I opened my charts. I did what I always do on Mondays - mess up my entries and exits. Took 24 ticks in loss in 2 trades. That's 100% loss and that was not acceptable to me. It was the kind of day that I shouldn't have to lose money. Sent D to bed, took a shower, and came back to my workstation. Waited til 3:10pm and finally saw something that failed - a failed 3rd lower peak. Went in, and covered at the close of the 3:15pm candle. I didn't have the focus and energy to figure out the next resistance. I would have held til I see the first bearish candle (given that ES just left base, I would expect 2 to 3 push ups from breakout) had this been the first trade of the day (why can't the first one ever be good????!). But as far as yesterday was concerned, I just wanted my money back coz I didn't think the market deserve to take it - not yesterday at least. I did better than break even. I took 26 ticks (13 ticks/contract) for that trade, so I was up USD 25 for yesterday. Ha Ha!

I didn't manage to get a screenshot - I couldn't do a posting after closing my trade (typing would wake both Carrie and D up) and when I woke up this morning, I found myself shut out of all my applications and had to log back on. So no captures. Might post chart when I get a chance to. Carrie had gone riding with an old friend, so I had some time to trade the Euro Futures (will be trading both Euro & ES from now on - Euro doesn't intimidate me anymore coz I got it figured out ie. I've learned how to contain damages in Euro trades).

I've had 2 hours' sleep in 35 hours, and am taking a nap now so I can show Carrie around town when she returns in a while.

Don't think I'll trade tonight. D's right, I shouldn't even have traded last night. He actually made me promise that I won't trade at all this week so I can focus on my friend. And he really didn't think I could focus on 2 things simultaneously. He's right.

ES Trade 6/5 (Fri) - Happy

Was watching 24 when I was waiting for my setup. D asked if that's prudent. I said I needed distraction so I won't jump in prematurely. During one of the most exciting scenes, my setup and signal appeared. I went in at market, only to realize that the DOM wasn't moving, and I was already in trade. My heart nearly stopped. D was too focused on Jack Bauer to notice that I was in kind of a bad situation. I shut down the AT platform, and logged back on. Took me just under 1 minute. Thank goodness (it was a while later that I realized that all I needed to do to get back on was simply to hit one of the buttons on the properties window to open a new DOM).

Held on to my position for 1 more candle and exited. I don't take the 3rd candle unless I intend to let my trade ride.

I'm not sure that the downtrendline's going to be pierced. Even if ES does breakout, it will likely cause a fiercer move down. This looks like the first leg of a down move. I'll be happy if it stops at the low of the day, which will be a double bottom play for me.

But it's Friday, I've had a scare, and I want this to be a good week since it's the first week I'm back trading live.

So I'm calling it a day.

Next week will be a more aggressive play.

Oh, I forgot. My best friend's visiting, and staying at mine for a week. So I might even have to stop trading for a week.

I met Carrie during my first year at the UofA. We were in the same chemistry lab. She noticed me when I nearly burned down the lab. That was 18 years ago. Time flies.

I'M HAPPY!!!! She's bringing Planter's Dry Roasted Peanuts (can't find them in Singapore anymore!!)!!! And we've lots of police stories to exchange!!!!

Cups & Pills

SPX & DOW


NDX & RUT


At this point, NDX looks like the only one that has not reached its full potential - what with the huge cup and a tiny cup in the making.

All the other 3 are not looking so good in the long run. For now, cup should bring price to fib 261.8

Again, the above's purely for my own amusement. I have no idea what the broader market is doing, and I've totally stopped watching/reading/listening to news. Nothing in this world feels real. But since I've chosen the blue pill, I shan't complain. But I'm not listening to anymore BS.

ES Trades 6/4 (Thurs) - Some Discipline, At Long Last

Black arrows indicate the 2 trades I took.

Reason for entering 1st trade was straightforward. I came out from the shower, D said he just sold the ES and got out with 2 ticks. I recalled that ES was supposed to have bottomed temporarily, and asked why he sold. He said there were 2 huge candles up and price looked a little stretched so he faded it. I took a look at his chart, and went right to my workstation. D was nosy, and came over to see if I was going to SELL for a change. My cursor was on "buy market". Then he noticed: it's a bull flag. For me, the reason to take the trade was not just that it was a bull flag. Even if it was, if I don't have a signal candle, I'm not going in. I scalp. Precision matters. I would have bought at close of my signal candle, but I took a few seconds to scan around for anything that I've overlooked (since I've been away from the screen), and immediately gave up 1 point for late entry. Got out at market, took 3 ticks even though market was 5 ticks from my entry price when I hit sell. I'm not surprised - it's crazy pre-market.

Context for 2nd trade:
1) Completion of 3 PushDowns
2) Price pierced 930 support and came back up - that's market's 2nd attempt to reverse to test OR high
3) 2 candles before my entry was a strong bearish candle and following it was what was supposed to be a flag of sort, but the next candle's low didn't even touch the flag's low when it closed. Volume was high on that last strong bearish candle - enough reason for me to trade a bear trap setup.
4) Fib: On all SPY, SPX & ES charts, my setup and signal candles were all sitting on Fib 50 of yesterday's low to today's OR high. I'm putting fib back coz I've found SPY, SPX & ES to be fib friendly (or the other way round, doesn't matter). A hammer on fib 50 after a gap fill is a good enough reason for me to take the trade.

My plan going forward is to drastically reduce the number of trades I make in a day. I'm going to be trading just up to 2 setups. Will increase my contract size to meet my profit target for the WEEK instead. 10 contracts per trade by end this year remains my goal.

Today's actually a day that I should have stayed away. I've always had heart problems and today's been bad. I'm not sure if it's the onset of a panic attack - the palpitations' making me feel really nervous throughout the day, and I was afraid to take a nap. It's silly of course - coz really, that's probably the best way to die : in my sleep.

Been wanting to trade the after 2pm session but my health's been getting in the way and I can no longer stay with my charts for 16 hours. Will be giving up the globex session altogether and focusing on the 930am - 4pm session instead. I've found the after 3:30pm session extremely tradable for my strategy.

About Comments & Emails

I want to apologize to all who have emailed me and dropped comments here for not having responded to you in a timely manner - once I'm back trading 12 - 16 hours, my eyes are just on my charts, even when I've no open positions. I don't multi-task very well (explains the unwashed laundry), but I'm learning.

Cory, thanks for the link - I don't have to do any test to know I'm a scalper :-) But I will check it out. And thanks for the info on Open Cry. I believe my data feed is from TransAct or something like that. For now, Sierra is still ok - it's different from the other charts but I've gotten so used to it that it doesn't really affect me. After all, I'm used to living in a world of my own! LOL!! But, thanks, Buddy! You're starting to become our virtual library :-)

HPT, good to see you here :-) Those P&L & trade log charts are an easy source of reference when I do my reviews. This is my one-stop station for getting everything I need to do my AARs. I've been doing this for, let me see...coming to a year now? During this time, posting losses has helped alleviate the "ego" issue - so that's a bonus :-)

Below's another one of my reply to an email that I'm posting here for my own referencing, coz the topics in question (profit-taking & globex-hours trading) are actually issues I'm struggling with myself (talk about not practicing what one preaches).


Sorry for my late reply.

Regarding globex-hour trades - slippage is indeed an issue, but it affects scalpers more. If you're trading these hours, it's better to go in with small sizes and hold your trades using S/R to determine your exits. These quieter hours are actually more volatile - spikes are common. But I don't think it's market makers that are hitting stops - anyone who has contracts large enough to move the market can take out stops on both sides (longs and shorts), since volume is generally very low compared to the US sessions. If you're thinking of focusing on globex sessions, a better instrument to trade is actually the russell 2000 (TF). The chart's ugly, but you don't need individual candles/bars to trade - price actions are smooth actually and all you need to watch out for are where key supports and resistances are.

Regarding profit taking - I always believe that you have to choose one - you either always just go for scalping profits (in which case, I would concentrate on the US trading session), or swing profits (this you can do both during globex hours and US sesssions). Once you've decided to take only, say, 3 to 5, or even 8 ticks, then you'll have to accept that the move might go many more points in your direction before turning around. Whenever you regret not having let profits run, and you start to hold your trades, you'll almost always find yourself in a choppy trends where moves don't go more than 2 points before they take out your stops. For those who are consistently just going for swing profits, they have those monstrous trending days where their profits can more than make up their many small losses (on choppy days where they get stopped out after an initially profitable position becomes a losing one). That's why it's important to stick to just ONE style. Nobody ever knows 100% if the day's going to be trending, ranging or choppy. Everyone can see it in hindsight. People like Dr Brett can give you some guidelines on how to see if the day's going to trend, but really, no one knows for sure. A ranging day can always turn into a trending one, and a trending globex session can turn choppy after US market opens either due to news or other factors. If you consistently take only scalp profits, you'll feel a little bitter on trending days when you see a move go 10 or 20 points and you had walked away with only 1 or 2. You'll have to learn to live with that. And it isn't difficult coz trending days are NOT the norm. It happens a few times a month - and these are the days that give the non-scalping daytraders the profits they need to cover their daily losses. But they can only hit those homeruns if they are there when it happens (meaning, they are holding their trades for home run profits - they are positioned for those profits at all times - so that when it happens, they are there).

For scalpers, depending on your entry strategy, 3 ticks to 8 ticks profit is doable. For 8 ticks profit, you'll just have to be more selective with your entries - on a ranging day, it means buying from the base of an established channel or selling at the top of an established channel. If you have 2 peaks and 2 lows, you can already draw your channel. Which means you buy or sell on the 3rd touch of the channel. The channels don't have to be parallel - they can be broadening. For triangles, breakout can happen both on top and below and usually they will go up and down trapping both buyers and sellers first, so I generally don't buy breakouts. Whenever price has touched a downtrend line twice, for instance, I'll take long trades when price has gone way beneath the trendline, but moving up, and use the trendline to time my exit. That means I'm NOT expecting a breakout on the 3rd time price hits trendline. For sellers, on a ranging day in particular, they can start watching for signal to sell when price touched that trendline for a 3rd time (expect price to actually breakout, but fall right back below the line after breaking out). On strong trending days however, price DO breakout of trendlines usually on the 2nd touch.

Hope the above helps. Yes I've been to your blog...not frequently, coz I don't usually go around checking out what everyone's doing...I'm having a hard time keeping up with those on my blogroll :-) I tend to get a little crazy and shut myself out totally when I'm focusing on something :-) But I'll make sure to drop by yours more frequently :-)

Let me know if you need more info on globex hours.

ES Trades 6/3 (Wed) - Jules Is A Mule

A picture's worth a thousand words:

ES (TA) & Reply to Comment (On My Exit Strategy)

Just something I do now and then whenever I'm no longer clear about the prevailing trend: TA!!

Chart shows a Cup With Handle formation - a valid one, given that
1) ES went up 30 points prior to its formation,
2) Cup's relatively tall
3) Handle's found in the upper half of the cup

This is a cup that has clearly performed. Price hit a target that exceeded the measured rule used for a cup in a BULL market (in a bear market, the measured rule is to take HALF the height of the low of the cup to the right rim, then add it to the right rim).

I spotted several cups before this cup, and none hit the measured rule for an uptrend. This is the first one that did. I'm not sure if that means we're looking at the start of a bull market. I find it rather hard to believe. It doesn't gel with what I see on SPX monthly ( 3 strong bullish candle off price low, but a 2nd entry is usually required to reverse prcie back up given the very strong downward momentum before it).

So, this is my hypothesis (gotta have one, it's just me): granted that we could very well be looking at an intermediate uptrend ahead, market is due for correction. SPX doesn't have to go all the way back down to 666; we have support at 840 (best case scenario). I'm anticipating a Cup Pullback to around 930 (1st target for shorts). From there another cup or any other variations of "W" formation could take shape, but I'll expect all upward breakouts from such patterns to fail. I'll start looking out for inverted cups in fact, or any variations of "M"s.

Whenever I'm disciplined (rare, but I do get into that mode at least a few days in a month..), I will not take trades based on assumptions. When I say I anticipate something, it simply means I'll keep a lookout for a setups that suggest it's happening. I will need both setups and signals for me to want to take a trade.

Personally, I wish that the market will just continue to go up from this point on to look for 1000. I'm starting to NOT like to sell. In fact, I don't think I'll be selling even if the market were to go into a short-term downtrend. What's good about taking the daytrading/scalping route is that I can still BUY in a bull correction. Ha.

Daytrader 233:

You asked how I decide where to cover/exit my positions.

Briefly, I count the number of legs/push ups (since I BUY, predominantly) once price leaves the "W" base.

Whenever ES is at the low of a "W" formation just minutes prior to US market open, I'll look out for the first bear attempt to push price back down the base - it's easy to see: the first candle that has a low that's sligthly below the low of the previous candle (keeping in mind that market's in an upward swing).

Then I'll see what the next candle is. If it's a bullish candle that has a decent size body and NOT too big a range, I'll enter on close of this candle. If the first bear attempt turned out to be a hammer, I won't wait for the next candle to form. That hammer will become my signal candle.

Once I'm in trade, I keep an eye on both the tape and the candle. If the candle's exceptionally long, and if it's pierced a trendline or a resistance, I'll exit before the close of the candle. Otherwise, I'll hold for another candle. There's no particular reason - just that I've seen so many moves comprising 3 with-trend candles. I usually like to get out when many are still wanting in (easy to cover), so I'll usually pass the 3rd candle. On days where candles are relatively small (on both choppy and ranging days), I will exit on the 2nd push up.

Having said all that, I usually go with the tape. Some days I choose to ignore the tape and that's the only time I'll exit as planned. Tape helps to give me a high winning percentage with small wins each time and if I have a daily target to hit, it means multiple entries. I ditch the tape (for exits) when I'm not in the mood to get in and out a dozen times. I always use the tape to confirm my entries.

Hope I answered your question?

ES Trades 6/2 - Wrap UP

A day where too many mistakes were made:

1) The 2 globex- hour trades had given me a 5-tick and 8-tick profits before my stops were hit, which I should have taken, since my stop was not set to take a swing

2) The 1st trade after US market opened was a mess - it wasn't supposed to be taken in the first place. I chased coz I was trapped out. I was trapped out coz I hesitated when I had my signal to enter (in triple pink arrow was where I should have entered).

3) The trade that followed was another chase - and even more unforgiveable coz I hadn't a signal at all!

4) The last trade was the only one today that I can feel happy about : I had both setup and a valid signal, and I exited as planned (which was NOT to hold beyond 2 trend bars, and cover as and when trendline is hit)

Before taking the last trade, I was down USD 325. I have a daily loss limit of USD 400, and what that meant was that I had 3 choices:
i) take the next signal and risk blowing my daily loss limit
ii) enter only on hammers / very small trend bars
iii) call it a day

I learn today that if I don't make good decisions throughout the day, I'll end up having to make extremely difficult ones before the day's over.

ES Trades 6/2 - Part 2

Stopped out twice (red arrows). I'm not sure from where to pick it up again. Likely at 930. I need sleep badly. If ES wants to bounce up anywhere above 930, so be it. I'm taking my nap. Scalping the US session. I AM REALLY DONE HOLDING.

ES Trade 6/2 (Tues)

Letting this one go auto-pilot. No particular setup - just betting that ES will break above downtrend line to test yesterday's high. Happy that I could at least put in a stop today! Am keeping my fingers crossed that it would kick in though (didn't work on IB during globex hours)...

ES (Live) Trade 6/1 (Monday) - Wrap Up

Failure to act on good setups (by good I mean FAMILIAR SCALP setup) - that's the worst kind of "fear" as far as I'm concerned.

Was adamant about keeping my USD 250 gain on the day of the week that has historically been REALLY BAD for me - and I got what I asked for. I'm not happy, but I'll live with it - only for today.

I've taken care of the "discipline" part by limiting myself to trading just 2 signals once I see my setups - if I don't pull the trigger on these signals, something's wrong with me.

Am calling it a day.

1 trade and 2 missed opportunities....

%*#*^&*#!!!!!

I'll forgive myself.

I shall sleep well tonight.

ES (Live) Trade 6/1 (Monday)

Break's over. Haven't a clue why I chose to start on a Monday, and during Globex hours!

Couldn't put in a stop (never traded pre-US-open on the Infinity platform...), and was surprised that my heart actually skipped a beat coz of that... Gone were the days where I was totally comfortable trading without a hard stop...which was just less than 2 or 3 weeks ago?? Breaks are bad!!

D will be sim trading the HOLD strategy for me (D, you promised!) Stats for sim trades will be posted on my sim trade blog...but am keeping my fingers crossed...(D CHEATED ON FRI and traded real money....and took 100 while I agonized over my sim trades!!!). For my own live trades, I might leave a contract to run only after 330pm whenever I see a good "trap" setup.

Chart above shows the candle that I've entered long (black arrow). Covered before candle closed. That's my MO - I'll be happy if I can hold for at least 3 candles. Working towards that. In this case, I was just scalping my familiar "attempt to breakout" setup (ie. not expecting a real breakout), so, no holding.

Given that today's a Monday, I'm not going to be actively looking out for setups. If I can spot them readily, I'll take them. If I have to strain my eyes to identify all the HH HL LL LH and swing highs/lows, I'll stay on the sideline.