So here's what I theorize:
As far as trading the CL, or any other commodity futures market's concerned:
A) You can't become obscenely rich if you:
- Don't know what you are doing, and you are highly risk averse ie. you are willing to lose only up to USD100 per contract per trade
- Know what you are doing, but will never consider risking more than USD500 per contract per trade
- Don't know what you are doing, and have no qualms about losing up to USD1000 per contract per trade (in fact, this could result in you becoming devastatingly poor)
B) There is a slight possibility that you can get obscenely rich if you
- Don't know what you are doing, are not afraid of losing your shirt, and you are a lucky bastard
- Know what you are doing, are not afraid of losing a decent amount of your trading capital, and you have not been jinxed
Scenario B2 generally doesn't happen until you've been through several seasons of scenario A3.
So it seems to me that for as long as one's going to be afraid of losing money, and/or feel in some way that the universe is against him/her, one should stop trading the commodity futures market altogether, for the simple reason that there's really nothing to be had - there's no "learning" to speak of even...
Also, it occurs to me (which I suspect most of us already know for a fact) that most reasonably sensible folks don't want to trade with money that they need for a variety of reasons (rainy days, kid's education, mortgage, holidays, retirement, etc, etc)...
....so, where am I really going with this?
I guess I am merely trying to justify my setting aside USD15 - 20k every quarterly to pay the market to show me the path to becoming insanely rich trading commodity futures (if I were merely looking for mediocrity, I would've had married an insanely rich man instead - lifelong challenges (plus a lot of fish and nuts, OR, as long been suspected, simply an unhealthy addiction to mahjong) keep Alzheimer's at bay...).
@ LW and HPT (HPT is now active at Justin TV.com which you can find on my "Link List"):
Hi Hi :-)
I'm going to be attending a short course on real estate laws in Singapore and the marketing of residential, commercial and industrial properties.
I'm a hermit by choice. :-) Agreed that being happy is more important than trading profits. But since it's highly unlikely that I'll ever STAY happy, I choose trading profits. ;-)
Alberto & Moi (on Jan 8th 2011)
If you must know why I never seem to face the camera, this is what happens whenever I'm asked to look into the camera:
or i do this:
the only time that I would smile happily to a camera (no more lectures and lecturers!!!):